How Abiy was Pushed from Dialogic-stand to Annihilating War: Analysis
Mr. Redwan Hussein, the non-accredited first ambassador of Dr. Abiy to Eritrea, arrived in Eritrea holding a confirmed knowledge that Isu was the sworn enemy of the TPLF. However, during his stay in Asmara, Mr. Redwan was shocked to discover that Isu never stood Dr. Abiy and also wanted Ethiopia without Dr. Abiy.
Dr. Abiy, who was known for condemning hatred-bombs, came to power to unite Ethiopians with love-bombs by promulgating forgiveness, reconciliation and prosperity. But right after he took power, Dr. Abiy changed his stand asserting that his love-bombs were impossible and that killing-bombs were needed so long the TPLF was there. Thence, Dr. Abiy turned to Isu to help him take out the TPLF. However, Mr. Redwan had his doubts that that invitation would give Isu an opportunity to put Dr. Abiy within his striking parameter.
The TPLF that’s accused of crimes committed lured Dr. Abiy and Isu into the ongoing war to implicate them in war crimes and crimes against humanity. As a matter of fact, Dr. Abiy’s shortsighted decision to invite Isu and his inexperience to push the TPLF to guerilla warfare are viewed by many as a recipe for more adventures and endless problems. Additionally, it is very arrogant of Dr. Abiy to assume, like Mengistu did, that guerilla leaders could be easily caught, tied with ropes and brought to justice.
According to many politicians, the ongoing war is dubbed as a war of reversing the Ethiopian system in that the TPLF was using ethnicity to unite the Ethiopians and, conversely, Dr. Abiy is using ethnicity to disunite the Ethiopian people. Yet, many Ethiopians do not blame Dr. Abiy; they curse the day Dr. Abiy found Isu and found the reason to declare war against the TPLF. Thus, it is said that Dr. Abiy flew to Asmara with the purpose to promote democracy and peace, but returned with counter-purpose to destabilize and kill peace.
The close association of Abiy with Isu and the incorporation of Isayasim politics into his (Abiy’s) courses of action focusing on eliminating opponents rather than negotiating were considered a declaration of war by many Ethiopians. That was why Dr. Abiy had to make his top list of solution to his conflict with the TPLF based on Isu’s reaction and Isu’s personalized language, such as: “Game-over, Wayane,” “Junta Wayane,” “Wayane criminals.”
Dr. Abiy has failed to build trust and, also per his strength, he should have not failed to create a comprehensive conflict resolution framework that could have enabled him to avoid confrontation and war with the TPLF. The world is indeed shocked to see Dr. Abiy pushed into Isu’s strategy. It appears that when a peace-making mindset comes together with a warmongering mindset (Isu), the warmongering mindset takes over. Something must be wrong with the picture and many fingers point at other powers to be behind. No doubt, those who are familiar with the regional politics excuse Dr. Abiy from not go headon with peeling the layers of the Horn of African countries’ problems because it is believed Isu to be the root cause.
Dr. Abiy, as a person who received the highest number of votes for the 2019’s Peace Prize Award, the conflict with the TPLF was a missed opportunity to demonstrate his leadership of love for peace, forgiveness and reconciliation that line up with his Nobel Peace Prize. The objectionable view is that Dr. Abiy declared war on the TPLF without a prior, repeat a prior, approval of the Ethiopian parliament. Still worse is Dr. Abiy’s aligning of his country’s grand strategies in his war against the TPLF and his treatment of the Eritrean refugees in Tigray with that of Isu’s strategies.
Abiy’s Regent in Mekele Considered as T-Egrie (Tigrai Under My Feet) by TPLF
When all federalists and peace-loving Ethiopians were waiting for the African Union’s envoy proposed dialogic connection to produce results for the Ethiopian unity crisis, Dr. Abiy surprised the world with his order of his army to occupy Mekele. The federalists considered Abiy’s action as an overthrow of the federal system. And, the Tigrayans considered the Amhara and the Federal army that entered Mekele as an occupation army.
The African Union’s envoy suggested to one side (Dr. Abiy’s) of the conflicting parties to get involved in the art-war of win-win through negotiation. The win-win approach was said to be a win for all Ethiopians, where peace and prosperity would prevail for all. However, Dr. Abiy rejected and chose the warfare of win only. To which, the African Union’s envoy responded making it clear that the war of win-or-lose would entail heavy losses in lives and materials besides the one who loses would be overpowered and brought to an end.
Dr. Abiy, whose leadership is past expiration and is said to have no mandate, declared operation of law and order war on the TPLF. Dr. Abiy’s strategy focused on taking back control of law and order in Tigrai from the elected local government so as to comb every inch of Tigrai until the chased TPLF leaders are arrested and brought to justice. The TPLF, on their part, strategized to retreat from cities enabling to strike their enemy at their chosen time and place. The TPLF favored their strategy because it is expected to help their striking at the enemy forces pick up faster, wider and deeper until the chaser (Abiy) is chased away from the region, just like they did to Mengistu Haile Mariam.
Dr. Abiy’s policies and blind eyes to the ongoing crimes committed in all kilils while he is battling the TPLF appear to be fanning more hatred and sowing more seeds of micro-nationalism that could lead to the disintegration of the country. Dr. Abiy’s controlled media are not saying any about the ethnic campaigns of killings and pillaging against one another. The majority muzzled Ethiopians appear to be quietly condemning the use of force against the Tigrayan people. Still, the politically conscious Ethiopians including those in jails and house arrests consider Dr. Abiy’s declaration of war in the name of taking control of law and order in Tigrai as outrageous violation of the Federal Constitution.
Instead of promoting unity and togetherness through negotiation, Dr. Abiy chose to go against his life-long comrades accusing them of past crimes. The African Union’s envoy suggested dialogue would have revived the lost trust among the comrades encouraging all to contribute towards solving all of the Ethiopian problems. If needed otherwise, once the dialogue started it would have shifted the war threats to defending positions legally under which all those accused of crimes and corruption, including Dr. Abiy, would have been given the right to prove their innocence in a court of law.
How the War Changed to a War of Implicating the Other?
When Dr. Abiy set foot on the Eritrean city of Asmara to reset the Ethio-Eritrean relationship, the city of Asmara danced to the joys of his arrival and showed its emotion filled welcome. Lack of honesty in Abiy-Isu’s diplomacy and politics, however; was surfaced when the two exchanged ambassadors without ambassadorial capacities and duties.
Even though, the two signed the Isu-Abiy peace agreement, their refusal to exchange diplomatic representatives signified that they were still at war. That war of theirs was defined as there was no peace so long the TPLF existed. Then, what was the role to be played by the appointed two as ambassadors: Mr.Semere Russom of Isu, Eritrea and Mr. Redwan Hussein of Abiy, Ethiopia. Those two representatives were not even duly recognized as ambassadors on their arrivals or later during their stays.
In Asmara, soon after arrival of Mr. Redwan, it was clear that he was sent to be trained on the politics of Isayasism so as to help redesign Abiy’s image in Isu-like image in Ethiopia: feared and respected out of fear. When Mr. Redwan asked for written materials, his trainers told him that he had to learn by observation and engagement.
In the process of learning through observation, when Mr. Redwan asked for explanations, he was told that Isayasism never disclosed it secrets because its secrets were the powers of the system. Still more, when Mr. Redwan asked some reconfirmations, he was told that denial and silence were the main sub-systems that made Isayasism so hard to penetrate through.
So, Mr. Redwan, when he was recalled to Addis Ababa, he returned to Ethiopia without any knowledge about Isayasism. Upon his arrival, Mr. Redwan had an opportunity to discuss his stay in Eritrea with one of those Ethiopian opposition leaders who were based in Eritrea. When Mr. Redwan shared with that opposition-leader about his inability to penetrate the government of Eritrea, that opposition leader reassured Mr. Redwan that he could not penetrate the government of Eritrea because “there is no government there.” The opposition leader added: “There is no government there because Isu is the government.” Thus, Mr. Redswan had to get his first lesson about one-man rule.
Mr. Redwan was summoned back to Addis Ababa to be assigned as state minister of the ministry of foreign affairs or to become Yemane Manky of Ethiopia, i.e. coordinator of Abiyism. Also, Mr. Redwan, upon taking over his new position, came to know that Mr. Semere Russom had already taken care of establishing those departments he was assigned to administer. Those departments are prepared, while masking the cruelty of Abiyism, to use different methods of terrorizing the Ethiopian people into submission to the leadership of Dr. Abiy.
Dr. Abiy’s ambition which is coached by Isayasists and powered by Isayasism heading to becoming a one-man-rule system of Ethiopia appears to be supported by those who are surrounding him. But Dr. Abiy should expect many setbacks along the way to his victory over the TPLF.
By all measurements, Dr. Abiy proved to be a fast learner excelling Isu in that he has become two in one: Isu and Ali Abdu. It appears that Mr. Semere Russom never emphasized that silence was power and that turned out Dr. Abiy to become loud in giving contracting reports and facts about his ongoing war with the TPLF.
The war that Dr. Abiy was lured into has become a war of knocking each other off upon the TPLF’s refusal to let move along the military equipment and weaponries with the Federal army division to other Kilil(s). Both, Dr. Abiy and the TPLF, as the result, sharpened their tongues against each other followed by Dr. Abiy’s fighter jets strikes targeting the equipment and weaponries commandeered by the TPLF.
The TPLF responded by missile strikes targeting airports in Amhara region. Even Eritrea was not spared from the TPLF’s missile strikes on the ground that Isu flashed Eritrea’s near private parts (ድሕሪ ሰለፋ እንታይ ተረፋ) when Isu extended his support to Dr. Abiy stating he would not sit and watch uninvolved with arms folded.
After the war got all out and fierce, the focus of the world was not on the military victories of the sides involved but were on the war crimes committed. The warring sides, besides seeking military victories, appeared to get the other side incriminated in war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. Amid the war of implications, Dr. Abiy seeking to defend his position confirmed that not even a single person was affected by his military action in Tigray, which statement additionally designated the ongoing war’s briefing/reports as driven by the omission of 99.9 percent truth.
Like all wars, the ongoing war has collateral (incidental) damage and intentional direct destruction as well as deliberate civilian killing and inflictions of damages on civilian properties. The crime areas include all the Eritrean refugees’ camps in Tigray. Grounds for suspicions of crimes committed are being made based on eye-witnesses’ accounts and reports.
Eritreans who took refuge in Tigray seeking safety, life and growth were deliberately exposed to destruction, abduction and deaths. Similarly, the Ethiopian refugees in the Sudan claim they fled genocide and intentional direct destruction of their places. In both cases, there are many voluntary people who know about those who committed crimes and ready to be witnesses when those criminals are presented for interrogation by the crime investigators.
Time is crucial to collect abundant proof of the war and humanity crimes committed while they are fresh and readily available. Indeed, the Eritrean pro-justice (the organized opposition and civil organizations) and concerned Ethiopians should take the driving seat in the investigation processes in order not to let things go slow. Just to get the crime investigation accelerated is to help the highly needed formation of the international investigative bodies and the war crime boards of review on crimes committed in Ethiopia so as to make war crimes trials possible and fast, be it in African Union or the United Nations.
While it is fresh and readily available, enabling documentation of all testimonial evidences from eye-witnesses, before the witnesses are blackmailed or gone into disappearance, it will be of great help to the crime investigators and their immediate action. If there are military personnel ready to self-incriminate on the ground they did what they did on the orders of their commanders, their names should be secretly given to the right departments in order for them to get protection and be witnesses against their commanders.
The Eritrean pro-justice movement and the concerned Ethiopians should be loud in their demands and fight that the presumption of innocence should be denied to all those accused of crimes. That is, calling for the legal theory in lieu of “innocent until proven guilty,” should go imposing for “guilty until proven innocent.” Thus, all government personnel/authorities should not be sources for evidences. Collected evidences and claims should be independently examined, sifted and tested. Authorities will be referred only and when needed to be confronted with evidences, truth and facts.
Like 2020 exposed the criminals, let’s look forward 2021 to taking the criminals out.
Mamino
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